Season 2: Episode 2 - Socio-economics with Tim Ashwin Artwork

Collectively Speaking

A new podcast series, looking at the big issues in the built environment, hosted by industry expert and LDN Collective Founder Max Farrell.

The LDN Collective is a network of built environment experts and creatives fighting to improve people’s lives and the planet’s prospects.

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Collectively Speaking

Season 2: Episode 2 - Socio-economics with Tim Ashwin

September 03, 2024 • Max Farrell • Season 2 • Episode 2

In episode two of the second series of Collectively Speaking podcasts, LDN Collective CEO Max Farrell sits down with economist Tim Ashwin to discuss the importance of strategising and measuring social and economic value.

Find out more about the LDN Collective at
https://ldn-collective.com/

1:00:00

[MUSIC]Welcome everybody to the latestepisode of Collectively Speaking,which is a podcast series where Isit down with some of our members,but also clients and collaborators to reallyget to know them better.And this series is a bitdifferent because we're going to focuseach episode around a topic or a theme.And it's a topic that thespeaker will know well, butit will also be a way of really organizing andstructuring the conversation.[MUSIC]Today, we're going to be talking aboutsomething that might often seem a biteither academic or not readilyunderstandable to most people,I would suggest, which issocioeconomic analysis andsocioeconomic benefits of whatwe do, which is within the builtenvironment, whether that'surban planning or architecture.And I'm really delightedto have with me Tim Ashwin,who has his own consultancy and a team workingwith him within his consultancy.And Tim is a relatively newmember of the LGN Collective, buthe's made a huge impact in theshort time he's been with us.[MUSIC]Tim, hello, welcome.Hi, great to be here, Max, thank you.I am interested in thiswhole topic of socioeconomics,because as I said, without wanting to sound inany way sort of arrogant,it's something that I think alot of people don't understand.I mean, me for one, before Igot to really work with you andothers on socioeconomic analysis and thebenefits that that can bring.So what would be good to hearabout is your journey, your career,your life story that took you into this field.And also a bit about why you do it andwhy you feel like it'ssomething that should be done more.Well, to give you a bit ofbackground into how I got into economics,I became interested in really how the worldworks from the perspective of thingslike infrastructure buildings andhow all those things fit together.Having studied economics,geography, and German at school,I then studied, I actuallydid politics in German, butpart of my university degreeinvolved in economics module.And that really got me interested in some ofthe deeper questions abouteconomics and socioeconomics.I mean, fundamentally, it's really about how adecision is made in regards toresources in the economyand why are things built andhow a decision is madearound how things prioritized andhow can you help to getthings developed and built.And I think people when they think abouteconomics consider more things likeinterest rates or inflation or these big sortof institutional decisions.Whereas actually it's much more about day today, economics is everywhere.It affects everything that we do.Every business has to think about how itprioritizes its activities.Having studied at Birmingham University, Istarted my career with network rail.I did a couple of yearsworking in operational planning.But I fairly soon became interested in some ofthe broader contextual questions.So while I'm interested inhow transport system works,I'm also interested in why doroutes connect with different routes?Why are certain services provided and who dothey serve of what purpose?What's the dynamic behind it?Where does the demand come from?How is it paid for?How is freight moved?How are passengers moved from A to B?And a general interest in geography also wasunderpinned by sort of wanting tounderstand more about themethods to get things built.So I decided at that point to broaden myprofessional experience by learning moreabout business in general and about your otheraspects of economics and policy and things.I went to Munich in Germany and did an MBAthere, which was a fantastic experience.And I worked for a couple of companies doingsort of logistics type work,industrial logistics, andI worked for an IT company.I did a few things when I was out there.And that really broadened myunderstanding of how the economy works,how different sectors ofthe economy work and so on.And really that was the springboard to megetting into consultancy and getting intoeconomics more generally.So after living in Germany, I returned to theUK and worked for Scott Wilson,which was eventually taken over by AECOM.I was there for about threeyears and I spent 12 years at Arup.And then about 18 months ago,I decided to become freelance.So yeah, that's a very quick history, butthat's quite a bit to unpack in terms ofdifferent stages of my journey, I suppose.It's interesting because obviously you've hadexperience now of working within differentcountries and different sort of cultures.Often Germany is looked up to from the point ofview of their economy andhow that's been managed.So I imagine there's quite a lot to learn andto transfer that kind ofknowledge to elsewhere.But also quite interested in the fact thatyou've worked in these big multidisciplinaryorganisations like Arup.And you said AECOM as well?Yeah, well, it was Scott Wilson and then boughtout by URS, which became AECOM.I left just at the timewhen it was being taken over.But yeah, I mean, it was still amultidisciplinary consultancy.Yes. Yeah. Yeah. Because I often say whenpeople ask what the LDMCollective is all about,I say that it's a different type of a modelwhere it is multidisciplinary, but it's bottomup network rather than those types oforganisations that you mentionedthat are very big and have lots of differentdepartments with different specialisms.And obviously that has its own advantages ofbeing able to do sort of internalcommunications more efficiently and have awhole team doing your marketingor your admin or what have you.But at the end of the day, it's a differentkind of service and a different outcome whenyou do engage with people who are specialists,but they're running their own businesses.And I've always thought that, you know, there'sthere's a culture that is so different whenit's a group of leaders that are running theirown businesses to a group of people who areemployed by a big company.And and often the decision making is a lotquicker when it's a group ofpeople running their own businesses.But also we don't have the overheads. You know,if you have 10,000 staff and you need the spaceand you need to pay the bills and all of thatends up feeding into fees.And I suppose the reason I'm thinking aboutthis in particular, given your topic or themeis because it's all abouteconomics at the end of the day.And it's about it's not just about theeconomics on a spreadsheet. It's about what theoutcome is of different models.And I think that's really interesting from thepoint of view of what you've been bringing tothe LDN Collective is this sort of methodologyand approach that that looks at how adevelopment might be taken forward.And in terms of how you might use differenttypes of spaces for community uses or, youknow, how the mix of uses might differ or needto sort of be looked at more carefully.But it's also about theoutcomes, what happens then as a result.And I suppose what would be interesting for meand also for our listeners to hear from you assomebody that does this day to day is what arethose kind of outcomes from your experience?And if you were to say socioeconomic benefitsare really thought about and done well, whatwould happen as a resultthat might not otherwise?I think I would start by saying thatsocioeconomic analysis is lookingat something in a very broad way.So it is a sort of an overarching view of aproject from the view of society as a whole.Now, that includes financial analysis, becauseif you think about any project, there's goingto be a sort of commercial element, which meanscertain things within a project will be paidfor by presumably bycompanies or sometimes not.And people will pay in returnfor the utilization of that.And that is a sort of market cycle that isprevalent in theeconomy, in the market economy.But often there are wider impacts that are notnecessarily obviousthrough normal market mechanisms.It's the role of, well, primarily the role ofgovernment, but also the increasingly the roleof socially conscious investors to considerwhat are those wide benefits and what are thosewider impacts of good quality design,of a built environmentthat serves wider purposes.Now, traditionally, you know, government willstep in and provide public infrastructure.That's normal for any in any economy, you know,be that roads, be that hospitals and so forth.But there's still that doesn't just mean thatthese decisions don'tneed some thought beforehand.If you think about it, there's always a limitto how many how much resource is available.And you need to have the tools and methods towork out what is the best use of thoseresources, which means you then need to bringin analysis of the impacts.So you mentioned examples.If you design, say you're regenerating a highstreet, yes, there will bethings that can be commercialized.There'll be shops, units, which restaurants andso forth, which can be paid for by investorsand they will get a return fromFuttfall and people spending money.But there will be benefits to wider societythat need to be thoughtabout in that context as well.So you may be providing improved employmentprospects and in better wages and better paidwork for local community byattracting people to this area.You may design it in a way that encouragespeople to be physically active and takeexercise in itself yields benefits.And, you know, you may bereducing crime that yields benefits.All of these things can beanalyzed, quantified and measured.And if you have a more holistic assessment ofany project, you will be more able to shape theproject to optimize itto achieve those outcomes.So my mission, I suppose, if you like, is Iwant to make that sort of analysis moreaccessible to people and not to see it as avery academic and sort ofdry theoretical exercise.But this is actually what everybody reallywants, which is everybody wants to design aplace to make people morehappy, more healthy, more productive.And those three thingsrespectively can all be analyzed, actually.I mean, economics isn'tperfect, Max. It's just one lens.It's many, many otherways of looking at the world.But it's useful, you know, it's useful becauseit's about all these resources and you have todecide of those finite resources, what's thebest use you can make outto them to maximize impact.To shape schemes, to channel things in a waythat's going to benefit society as a whole.It's a particularlytimely thing as well, isn't it?Because I think a lot of investors now arelooking for more than just financial returns.And I think it's increasingly becoming withintheir constitution, within their criteria forinvesting, as it has environmental or socialbenefits as well as financial ones.So I suppose the key thing there is how do yousort of measure these benefits and how do yousort of predict what they might be?But then how do you go backand measure it afterwards?Because quite often with the built environment,unless it's either land owned by a localauthority or by a sort of a greater state,whether that's one of the more traditional onesor more contemporary ones who have a vestedinterest in that sort of longer term thinking.If it's just a sort of a developer or a housebuilder that's planning on either gettingplanning permission and selling the site orbuilding it and selling it on,quite often there isn't that incentive tomeasure, to predict andstrategise from the outset.Arguably there is because they need to get theplanning permission and they need to sell thehomes or lease the offices.But to go back and then measure how you've doneagainst what you set out to do.Is that something you think is becoming moremainstream and more readily understood?Yes, I do. I do think it's becomingincreasingly the case that standards are goingup in terms of corporate behaviour,ESG, environmental and socialresponsibility and governance.And there's a broader sort of challenges andthe bad news in the world.You know, there is a consciousness that we, youknow, as a society, be a private operator orgovernment or privatecitizen, you need to take action.I think the awareness is increasing.Of course, it's still the responsibility of thepublic and the state to put the framework inplace to ensure good behaviours incentivise andto ensure that malpractice is penalised.You know, there's a few thoughts really mean.One is the public sector, as well as sort ofregulating economic activity and making surethat, you know, benefits are maximised andnegative impacts are minimised,are also bringing into mainstream practice andincreasing focus on what we call social value,you know, so those wider benefits.So, for example, percentage wise, if you'relooking at scoring a series of tendersubmissions forbuildings, projects quite often.I mean, I've been seeing projects where there'sa 20 percent weighting given to social value.This is a local authority which wishes to getcompeting businesses to show their credentialsand, you know, put their moneywhere their mouth is, if you like.And make commitments.Make commitments. Yeah. And they will now theprivate sector, absolutely theprivate sector equally wish to.I mean, yeah, of course, as an element ofwanting to look good, you know, don't we all?And they will obviously want tohave commercial reasons to do that.But that is actually quite importantnevertheless that consumers, if you like, aremore conscious about the wider impacts of whatthey're buying and what they're investing in.And investors likewise, shareholders likewise.So I think it's a joined up effort.It's interesting you were asking about timingthere, because if you look at business casesfor public sector investment, where they thinkabout these wider impacts,quite often, say, taking my high street examplefrom earlier, if a local authority or publicsector entity wants to invest, to regenerate anarea, it might commission some work to look atthe benefits and to justify it.Then putting some, you know, scarce capital tomake sure that it's been used in a good way togenerate these benefits that might be done.But it might be another two or three yearsbefore the project is actually built.By then, the business case mightbe sitting on a shelf somewhere.And that's not right, because there needs to bea sustained and continualfocus on these wider benefits.Now, the public sector, to its credit in theUK, is quite strong on this and has in recentyears really become much better atrecognising the need to evaluate.And hence, there's some guidance called theMagenta book, which those who are interested intechnical detail will know about.And that requires that you put in place certainthings to make sure that you are hostimplementation of aproject evaluating its impacts.This is still largely in thedomain of the public sector.However, I think in parallel to that, theprivate sector catching up, if you like, andthey are reporting their own metrics toevaluate the social and economicbenefits of what they're doing.Right. So they will have annual reports, CSRreports or, you know, whichever acronym theyuse to describe the division of their business,which is dedicated to making sure that they'reperforming those tasks anddelivering against those deliverables.So, yeah, I mean, it's I do think it's a greatthing. Yeah, I would say so. Absolutely.I want to ask you a bit about the we went on astudy trip earlier this year to Newcastle,which I think for people who are good withaccents would have already detected a Geordietwang that you have there, Tim.So obviously, in many ways, returning returningback to your, you know, your early stompingground in terms of Newcastle.But one thing that was really useful and Ithink was a revelation to me really is was whenyou did some research around the socioeconomicsof Newcastle that was right up to the currentcurrent time in terms of theway the economy there has evolved,but also much more granular around the types ofcompanies, the types of sectors that are eithergrowing or declining in Newcastle and how thatmight then help attract investment.But also how that might shape built environmentprojects, you know, who you building for andwhat the demographics are andhow much is the student population.And all of these things are really fascinating,but really underpin a lot of decision making.It just struck me thinking about that trip andthe research that you did is there's somesimilarities in a way with with what you'relooking at the moment, which I know we can'ttalk too much about, but just in broad terms ofa master plan for a new settlement that has aneconomic component to it in terms of placeswhere people will go and work.Because we're master planning a whole new townand any town is not just about people livingthere or studying there.It's also about working and what kind of jobsand what kind of jobs go well together and howthey might be co-located andbecome more of an ecosystem.So it's quite interesting to know for me how doyou do that in a way that is real and is placebased because, you know, every project that youread about has an innovation hubor, you know, creative quarter.But then there's not much more on, you know,what does that actually mean and what kinds ofbusinesses and have you spoken to them and whatkind of space do they need and who do they wantto be next door to and all of that stuff.So how do you go about doing that kind of thingthat's more place based?I think the starting point would be, as youalluded to, profiling the area in terms of its,you know, its demographic characteristics,sectors of economic activity that are prevalentin that area, the level of education and theamount of educationalactivity in local institutions.You would focus on what are the particularcharacteristics of the location in terms of itspotential advantages, say, from a competitiveperspective for certain types of activity.I would, in this case, join perhaps certainexperts who know about the local commercialmarkets and they would bring one perspectivebecause I think that's quite important.They understand where on the supply and demandside, you know, where are their particularshortages of supply versus oversupply.They would know the types of investors.I would then look at local policy and localindustrial strategies to understand theperspective of officialdom, if you like, bethat local government or combined authorities,as well as national strategies.You typically have to think about, you know,are there things that are sort of overlappingwith other clusters and other locations becausewith best will in the world, if everyone wantsto do advanced materials manufacturing, there'sonly so much advanced materials manufacturingthat needs to be done in the UK as a whole.And it will have areasthat are more suited to it.Yeah, I mean, you look ata mix of different aspects.It's a matter of really talking to as well,understanding sort ofinfrastructure characteristics.I mean, a lot of infrastructure investment,which I've traditionally been involved with inmy earlier career, was about how suitable isthe site, you know, how arerisks taken care of and allocated.I mean, there are things that, again, you know,come back to the role of the public sector.There are things that the commercial operatorssimply can't take on as risks and that thepublic sector needs to sort of sort out, if youlike, to make this viable.Yeah, I mean, the classic ones, which are mostimportant, are things like risks aroundregulation, risks around sort of policy, thingsthat are just outside any control of theprivate sector to influence.And also perhaps in some cases, if there'shistorical liabilities or huge amounts oftechnical risk, the publicsector may need to step in.And that can happen, for example, with blightedsites, former sites that were used forindustrial or military uses, for example.So, I mean, it's a realmix of different things.I mean, what we try to do is draw together theperspectives, because as well as all of thesort of cost and risk aspects, you've also gotto look at the upside, you know, what are thethings that are really drivingand exciting people actually.And there is a sort of human side to that, youknow, it's not just academic, it has to be.Is there evidence that this site has, you know,particular advantages in terms of the sort oforganizations who are involved in promoting it?I mean, you'll often hear about successfulsites where there may be one or twoorganizations who are driving redevelopment.I mean, there's sites in, you know, South Walesnear where I live in Cardiff, there's an area,Hendra Lakes, St. Melons, which has been drivenby some very ambitious localdevelopers who have got a vision.They have some interest from Blue ChipInstitution, and this could unlock a massiveamount of regeneration, because they are usingthat to spearhead a wider package ofinterventions that will deliver substantialsocio-economic benefits to an area that isarguably underperforming.So that's fascinating and really interestingdimension that you bring toprojects that I've witnessed firsthand.What I'd like to hear a bit more about is whereyou see things going in the future, becauseobviously people are more aware of the need todo socio-economics and to do forecasting andscenarios and strategizing.But just hearing you talk about, you know,being about making happy, healthy andproductive places is really interesting,because that sort of gives you something toreally give it a clearerunderstanding of why we're doing it.I think one of those elements in terms ofhealthy places is something that people aretalking about more and more, not least because,you know, of the state that our National HealthService is in and the need for everyone inevery walk of life to be doing what they can toimprove our collective health is absolutelysort of fundamental really.And the built environment has such a big impacton people's health that is often misunderstoodor not even people aren't even aware of.So is that something you seesort of becoming more mainstream?And if so, how are you addressing it and whatkind of things do you seein terms of healthy places?So I think it's a great question, Max. And Ithink, yes, absolutely.I can see that health and well-being should bea principal consideration of anyinfrastructure project within reason.If you're designing the fabric of society wherepeople live, where people move around, wherepeople work, you should be, I think,encouraging a configuration and layout anddesign and characteristicsof that built asset that willencourage, for example, people to be moreactive and to be lessdependent, for example, on cars.There should be a greater focus on mentalhealth and that includes things like making theenvironment more friendly and safe for peopleof all ages and abilities.There should be greater focus on sociable spaceand reducing loneliness, giving people more ofan opportunity to intermingle.Now, I'm not saying anything revolutionary,Max, because I mean there's ahuge recognition of this already.But I feel that I'd really like to help todrive that forward by making analysis aroundwhat those benefits mean more accessible.Now, what I mean is there's a growing body ofanalysis and evidence that shows, you know, ifyou design things in a certain way and makepeople more active, there will be cost savings.And that can then justify and unlock fundingfrom government by reducing cost to the NHS,for example, you know, be it, yeah, as I say,more active infrastructure orthings like cultural activities.For example, there's studies to show that thatimproves mental well-being,reduce loneliness, reduce isolation.And of course, it also makes people moreproductive, which, of course, is great becausethen that means standards of living rise,people have moredisposable income and so forth.So I think that it's going to become moremainstream to design health into our highstreets, our buildings, ourbusiness parks, our offices.And this is particularlyactually since the pandemic.I mean, this has become such a huge focus nowthat the expectation of the standards ofoffices, for example, is now higher and higher.And even in spite of overall office demand, Ibelieve still not quite being at the samelevel, the level for topgrade office is higher than ever.Because there's thisrecognition of that need for health.And yeah, I mean, finally, I mean, there's anaging population, there's endemic health issuesand large portions of thepopulation who are in poor health.And that needs to be addressed.I think there's society as well as recognizingrather than just being reactive, there's reallyscope to be moreproactive about peddling against.You know, we live in awonderful age of convenience.And of course, the past 50, 100 years, we'vedesigned to be convenient tomake life as easy as possible.Now there's a bit of tension there because ifeverything is so convenient and easy, it meanswe never take any exercise.It means that we we overeat.It means, you know, and we have a sort ofconvenient private drivethrough culture, perhaps.And that's perhaps not thebest for society in the long term.So I think that could change.Well, Tim, that's been a really interesting andinsightful overview of what you do.And some may say is sort of a niche specialismin terms of socioeconomics.But ultimately, it's how we help informdecisions and get decisions made using theevidence, using data, whichwill create better outcomes.And I think for that reason alone, it should besomething that's fundamental to every project,which is actually quite heartening.Because these days, Tim, you seem to beinvolved in almost everyproject that we're working on.And that means for me that the LDN Collectiveis working because something likesocioeconomics is now being thoughtabout right at the very beginning.So I applaud you for that, Tim.And also you're a lovely guy and that alwayshelps having you involvedin everything that we do.So looking forward to manymore collaborations in the future.And thanks for everythingthat you bring to the collective.Thank you so much.What I was interested in was finding out a bitmore about your role on the board ofthe Urban Design Group.Can you tell us a bit about that?Absolutely.So yeah, I've been involved with theUrban Design Group for about eight years.And I joined the team because I wanted to tryand shake it up a little bit.Surprise, surprise.And I think my shake up has really kind ofchanged over those years.That I've realised that what I really want todo is to raise the profile ofurban design and bring it to people that don'tunderstand what urban design is aboutSo I'm currently the honorary secretary and Ireally see my role as somebody thatshouts out about what we do.Helps to kind of elevate urban design andmasterplanning within the built environmentBut also, for the general public.We've seen 20 minute neighborhoods have createda complete stir where peoplethink that they can't leave their house formore than 20 minutes ortravel more than 20 miles away from their home.And that's a problem where as professionals, wehaven't explained properlywhat it is that we mean ortold a story or a narrative.And again, going back towhat we talked about earlier,telling that narrativeand story is so important.Because it really does help people tounderstand and come on board with us.So Tim, tell me a bit more about this specificelement of what you do which is around healthand making sure that when we go about designingplaces and buildings that the outcomes area healthier population.How do you sort of strategise for that? How do you measure it?And is it something that's increasingly common?It's definitely something that should beintrinsic to the design ofany project in my opinionbecause there are various ways you can measurethose outputs and those outcomes.So improved health means less cost to the NHSand it means better lifeoutcomes for people which canmake people happier, healthier and moreproductive which is what it'sall about really when it comesto designing good places. I can see there arevarious methodologies toevidence those benefitsand I think that there's a recognition that weneed to build this rightfrom the outset so thatour cities and towns and buildings are designedto ensure people's well-being.Now there arethings like making people more active, becomingless car dependent, walking around more, takingmore exercise. There are things like improvingthe amount of green space,making things more pleasantand safe and there are things like makingspaces more sociable soincreasing opportunities forinteraction, reducing loneliness, reducingsocial isolation and thiscan actually be significantlyinfluenced as you and many designers in ourcollective world willknow by good quality design.

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